BALTIMORE -4.5 Houston 51

Houston was dominant in their 26-3 victory in London two weeks ago over Jacksonville. They out gained Jacksonville 6.5yppl to 5.4yppl, out rushed Jacksonville 6.4ypr to 4.9ypr and out passed the Jags 6.7yps to 5.5yps. Houston was plus three in turnover margin. The final numbers were worse than they looked when you consider Houston ran the ball 19 more times and Jacksonville threw the ball 22 more times. Houston was successful on 52% of their plays to 41% for Jacksonville.

Baltimore looked like an old Nebraska team steamrolling over Cincinnati 49-13. They out gained Cincinnati 8.2yppl to 4.3yppl. They out rushed the Bengals 5.9ypr to 3.9ypr and out passed Cincinnati 10.6yps to 4.7yps. Baltimore had a pick six and scored touchdowns on seven of seven drives taking out drives at the end of the half and game. The Ravens were successful on a extremely high 74% of their plays to 53% for Cincinnati.

Houston averages 6.1yppl against teams allowing 5.6yppl. They allow 5.9yppl against teams averaging 5.8yppl. Houston has been successful on 51% of their plays and allow a 43% success rate. Houston is plus three in turnover margin.

Baltimore averages 5.9yppl against teams allowing 5.8yppl. They allow 5.9yppl against teams averaging 5.6yppl. The Ravens have been successful on 51% of their plays and are allowing a 47% success rate on defense. Baltimore is plus four in turnover margin.

Houston lists several key starters as questionable like WR Will Fuller, S Tashaun Gipson, CB Bradley Robey and LT Laremy Tunsil.

DT Michael Pierce is out for Baltimore

I don’t have any situations on this game. My numbers favor Baltimore by 3.3 points and project 50.4 points.

Baltimore is in the top ten of the league in generating big pass plays. DeShaun Watson has been a tough out on the road as a dog in his brief career. He is 8-2-1 ats as a road dog and has never lost a game by more than seven points. His two losses against the spread were both seven point losses was at NE last year 20-27 and earlier this year at Indianapolis 23-30. In those games against good teams, the Houston defense has allowed 27, 32, 36, 41, 30, 24 and 30 points. They’ve also scored at least 28 points in five of those seven games. So, Houston figures to get their points in this game and it’s likely they will allow their share as well. The Ravens are just the opposite as they’ve gone 1-7 ats in their last eight games as a home favorite. That includes being 0-3 ats this year with an outright loss to the Browns who run the ball similar to the Texans along with some similar skill position players at wide receiver like Cleveland. This should be a great game and that goes back and forth. I will lean Houston’s way and towards the over but a couple of questionable designations for the Texans will likely keep me from playing them. BALTIMORE 27 HOUSTON 24