BUFFALO -6 Cincinnati 43.5

The Bengals were throttled at home by the 49ers 41-17. They were out gained 8.4yppl to 4.9yppl. They were out rushed 6.2ypr to 1.3ypr and out passed 12yps to 6.3yps. SF punted just twice and started every drive inside their territory and proceeded to have very long, successful drives. The Bengals were only successful on 34% of their plays to almost 64% for SF.

Buffalo fell behind 7-0 but outscored the Giants 28-7 after that initial score for a 28-14 victory. Buffalo out gained the Giants 5.8yppl to 5.6yppl. They were out rushed 6.5ypr to 4.4ypr but out passed the Giants 7.2yps to 5.2yps.

Cincinnati is averaging 5.5yppl and allowing 6.9yppl for the second worst yards per play defense in the league. Cincinnati has only been successful on 37% of their plays this year while allowing 53% of the plays run against them to be successful. They are allowing 18% of the passing plays against them for big plays. The only slight positive for them is they are sacking the opposing quarterback on 8% of the opponents passing plays. But, they are being sacked on 8.8% of their own passing plays. Cincinnati has been pass happy to this point throwing the ball on 75% of their plays.

The Bills are averaging 5.8yppl and allowing just 4.5yppl. Buffalo is hitting on 10% of their passing plays for big plays while limiting the opponent to just 3% big passing plays. With that said they have faced just the Jets and Giants up to this point.

My numbers favor Buffalo by 8.8 points and project about 44.6 points. This game would qualify in a 148-87-3 over situation if the total is 43 or less. But it also qualifies in an under situation, which hasn’t been as good lately.

The Bengals have allowed 23 or more points in 12 of their last 15 road games as underdogs so it’s likely they will allow at least that to Buffalo in this game. The Bills defense started to turn the corner back in 2013. Since then, where they’ve had a competitive defense, they’ve allowed 17 or less points in 15 of those 25 games they’ve been listed as a home favorite. As a home favorite of three or more points they are also 10-5-1 ats as well. They’ve also scored 23 or more points in 11 of those 16 games as a home favorite of three or more. Bottom line is Buffalo has a very good defense that is likely to keep Cincinnati in check on this field, which is a very tough place to play, especially when Buffalo is good and their fans are supporting them. Add to that a below average defense from Cincinnati who is likely to give up at least 23 points in this game. That leaves a small room for error if you are looking for Cincinnati to cover this spread. There may be potential winds of 15 MPH and possibly gusting to 25 MPH. BUFFALO 27 CINCINNATI 17