DENVER -1.5 Tennessee 40.5

Tennessee fell at home to a very good Buffalo team, 14-7. Buffalo out gained the Titans 5.0yppl to 4.7yppl, out rushed them 4.0ypr to 3.8ypr and out passed them 5.7yps to 5.6yps. Tennessee’s only touchdown came on a drive that started at the Buffalo 38 yard line following an interception. But, Tennessee also missed four field goals in the game. Buffalo was successful on 50% of their plays to just 36% for Tennessee.

Denver jumped on LA 17-0 early on and then held on for a 20-13 victory over the Chargers. Denver out gained LA 6.4yppl to 3.8yppl. They out rushed them 6.0ypr to 2.2ypr and out passed them 6.9yps to 4.4yps. The Chargers only touchdown was a punt return. Denver was successful on 42% of their plays to 37% for the Chargers.

Tennessee is not rushing the ball well. They average just 4.2ypr against teams allowing 4.7ypr. The passing offense is below average at 5.9yps against teams allowing 6.4yps and 5.1yppl against teams allowing 5.7yppl. The defense is above average across the board and allowing 5.3yppl against teams averaging 5.7yppl. Tennessee only has a 40% success rate but is also only allowing a 43% success rate. They are also plus six in turnover margin which is helping them survive. They are the only team that has not thrown an interception this year.

Denver has been just below average on offense at 5.5yppl against teams allowing 5.7yppl. The defense is just above average at 5.4yppl against teams averaging 5.6yppl. A better stat for the Broncos may be their success rate on offense is 49% while they are allowing just a 43% success rate. This may be a better indicator of who this team will be going forward. They are minus four in turnover ratio so if they can turn that around there is a good chance their fortunes will turn around as well.

DE Cameron Wake is out for Tennessee

CB Bryce Callahan is out again for Denver.

My numbers favor Tennessee by 2.4 points and project 36.1 points. This game qualifies in an early season over situation, which is 148-87-3.

This game is perfectly suited for Tennessee. They are getting points with a very good defense against a Denver team that likely can’t separate themselves from Tennessee to ever put the game out of reach. Denver is just 1-7-2 ats as a home favorite going back to the beginning of the 2017 season. The Denver offense is slightly better than the Tennessee offense but the Titans defense is currently much better than the Broncos defense. Add some points to the mix for the better defense and Tennessee has some value in this game. TENNESSEE 20 DENVER 16